INVESTORS TAKE NOTICE OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY’S PROGRESS AND POSITIVE OUTLOOK

London, 27 September 2021 - On the occasion of Ukraine’s 30th anniversary, ICU, an independent asset management, private equity and investment advisory firm specialising in emerging and frontier markets, hosted the Ukrainian Sovereign Investor Conference in London. Organised together with the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, and the Embassy of Ukraine to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the conference celebrated the progress the Ukrainian economy has made since independence and focused on the key challenges and opportunities for the Ukrainian sovereign fixed income market.

The conference was attended by international investors and analysts specialising in emerging markets and featured discussions and presentations from high profile speakers on Ukraine’s reform process, state budget and state debt performance, monetary policy as well as the macroeconomic outlook for Ukraine. Speakers included Vadym Prystaiko, Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK; Sergiy Marchenko, Minister of Finance of Ukraine; Yuriy Butsa, Ukraine Government Commissioner for Public Debt Management; Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine; and Konstantin Stetsenko, Founding Partner of ICU. The session was moderated by Yuri Bender, editor-in-chief of Private Wealth Management and reporter at the Financial Times.

Konstantin Stetsenko, Founding Partner of ICU, said:

“It was an honour for us to arrange this special event to celebrate the 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence. Ukraine has made significant progress in recent years due to the transformative work of our policymakers, investors, bankers, and politicians. We believe that Ukraine’s economy is in a strong position with significant potential for further growth due to the strong structural features of our economy and the reforms implemented. Ukraine, however, needs foreign investment to support economic growth and for this, it is crucial that the judicial and economic reforms to continue and provide further stability and growth.”

Vadym Prystaiko, Ambassador of Ukraine, added:

“It was a pleasure to collaborate with our friends ICU and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. It is an exciting time for our country with the economy in a strong position despite recent challenges and uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Global perspectives on Ukraine are changing for the better with the country prioritising modernity and progress. We believe the next thirty years will be a prosperous period for our country as we continue to innovate.”

Summary of Presentations

• Sergiy Marchenko (Minister of Finance) – outlined draft 2022 key budget figures and stressed that for the first time in the history of Ukraine's independence, the state budget was developed on the basis of the Medium-Term Budget Declaration which takes into account the country’s main public policy directions in the medium term. Medium-Term Budget Declaration provides for significant fiscal consolidation: next year the state budget deficit will decrease to 3.5% of GDP, in 2023 the Ministry of Finance plans to reduce it to 3.0% and in 2024 to 2.7%. Mr Marchenko also defined Government’s priorities in state budget expenditures that include healthcare, defence and security as well as large-scale modernization and digitalization of economic sectors of the country. The Minister said that the 2022 budget is balanced and feasible, based on a macro-economic forecast, which provides for further recovery of economic activity, the driver of which will be the recovery of consumer and investment demand. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.8%. The yearly inflation is projected at 6.2%.

• Yuriy Butsa (Ukraine Government Commissioner for Public Debt Management) – Mr Butsa presented the government’s medium term budget policy priorities. In 2022 the government plans to cut governmental borrowings by UAH150 billion (US$5.3 bn) hryvnas to help pandemic-hit state finances recover. He noted the positive dynamics in terms of the fulfillment of the debt management strategy this year due to the substantial increase of the borrowings in Ukrainian hryvnias and increase of the tenures of the bonds sold. He also pointed out the significant increase of the liquidity on the secondary market due to more active participation of the local banks in trading of longer bonds. This together with the stable macroeconomic situation and prudent fiscal and monetary policies led to the return of the appetite of international investors for local currency bonds and resulted in inflows of UAH 10.6bn (US$400m) since the beginning of the year.

• Sergiy Nikolaychuk (Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine) – Mr Nikolaychuk presented the outlook for the Ukrainian economy. Sergiy concluded that, in the short term, the vulnerability of the economy to external and internal shocks has been significantly reduced due to prudent macroeconomic policies and support from official partners. In terms of Sergiy’s mid-term perspective, he concluded that judicial reform, protection of property rights, and the rule of law are necessary conditions for potential growth acceleration. He also discussed the necessity to step up the vaccination programme in Ukraine, where only 15% of adults have had first jab.

For further information, or to arrange an interview with ICU, please contact:

Montfort Communications

Shireen Farhana / Louis Supple

(+44 (0)203 770 7906 / +44 (0)203 770 7914)

ICU@montfort.london

About ICU

ICU Group is an independent multi-strategy asset management, private equity, and investment firm that specialises in the emerging, and frontier markets worldwide. The Group also has a portfolio of venture capital and fintech investments through its venture capital arm, ICU Ventures.   

ICU currently manages $500m in assets. ICU aims to provide its clients with superior risk-adjusted returns across a number of asset classes with investment decisions supported by robust macroeconomic and sectoral analyses from an in-house team of research economists.