ICU - Blog

Blog

#inflation #economy macroeconomics #central banking #currency #PayPal $PYPL #NBU #socialism #communism #totalitarism #IMF #debt operation #debt restructuring #books #business #bonds #government #market #reforms #реформи #GDP #SAAR #Oschadbank #Ukreximbank #OSCHAD #EXIMUK #liquidity #lending #UkrFinForum #VRI #Pryvatbank #Privatbank #ОВГЗ #ОВДП #budget #бюджет #дефіцит #macroeconomics #пенсия #дефицит #правительство #debt #облігації #депозит #UAH #USD #EUR #dollar #Euro #hryvnia #борг #держборг #долг #госдолг #Clearstream #нерезиденты #нерезиденти

Olexander Martynenko

Hryvnia: Finally loosing steam?

25 October 2019

Since the beginning of October, the dollar has risen by 55 kopecks against the hryvnia. Does this mean that the hryvnia is finally losing steam? We do see growing supporting evidence. The more than $4bn of foreign investment that has flowed into government local-currency bonds has provided powerful support for the hryvnia this year. At the same time, it has significantly weakened the effect of seasonal ...

Olexander Martynenko

Naftogaz Eurobond issue has to sit out the 2019 elections storm

21 November 2018

Last week, Naftogaz of Ukraine postponed its five-year $500m Eurobond issue citing volatile market conditions and elevated funding levels. We think that the key reasons for the issue’s failure were fragile investor sentiment in the global financial markets, and a host of political risks facing Naftogaz in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019. Should the elections clear ...

Olexander Martynenko

Ukraine’s Alternative Energy Evolution

13 November 2018

Speakers on the Alternative Energy Panel of the Ukrfinforum 2018 underscored that developing renewable-power capabilities are critical for Ukraine’s energy independence. because such capacities utilize just domestic resources and therefore are able to improve the country’s balance of payments. Moreover, development of the alternative energy sector will provide additional employment, which, in turn, ...

Olexander Martynenko

Edward Lucas: Ways to fight corruption in Ukraine

19 October 2018

Edward Lucas, a keynote speaker at the Ukrainian Financial Forum 2018, examined ways to end corruption in Ukraine. Properly functioning anticorruption courts and special prosecutors are important to end the currently existing climate of impunity, the public’s support of the crackdown on corruption is a powerful and determining factor in its success.

Olexander Martynenko

Edward Lucas: Ukraine needs a truly competitive electricity market without distortions

19 October 2018

Edward Lucas, a keynote speaker of the Ukrainian Financial Forum 2018, is confident that in the long term, the Ukrainian electricity sector should integrate with the EU power system. For that, the power markets require honest competition, high technical standards, predictability, and lack of distortions.

Olexander Martynenko

Edward Lucas: Ukraine’s gas sector still needs more market competition and transparency

18 October 2018

Edward Lucas, a keynote speaker at the Ukrainian Financial Forum 2018, had insightful comments about the Ukrainian natural gas market and transit system. In reality, competition in the gas market remains fake, and to make it real, authorities should decisively solve the issue of hidden ownership. Ukraine also needs to re-establish the trust of outsiders in its gas transit system to keep it viable.

Olexander Martynenko

Edward Lucas: How to remove obstacles to reforms in Ukraine’s energy sector

11 October 2018

Edward Lucas as a keynote speaker of the Ukrainian Financial Forum 2018 discussed the key issues standing on way of reforms in Ukraine’s energy sector. Populism and lack of public trust will make reforms implementation difficult and painful. To remove these obstacles, careful planning, transparency, accountability and legality of reforms are really critical.

Olexander Martynenko

Edward Lucas: Ukraine’s energy inefficiency is an opportunity for capital markets

11 October 2018

Edward Lucas, acclaimed author, former senior editor at the Economist, and energy, intelligence, and cyber-security expert was a keynote speaker on the energy panel of the Ukrainian Financial Forum 2018. He provided many insightful and colourful observations for the audience and Ukraine’s reformers. One of them is Ukraine’s energy inefficiency, which may offer lucrative opportunities for investors ...

Olexander Martynenko

Natural gas production in Ukraine in 2018: on the threshold of change

22 May 2018

According to Ukrtransgaz, in 4M18, natural-gas production in Ukraine declined 1% YoY to 6.8bcm. Over-regulation of the sector adversely affected the numbers: jumps in royalty tax rates during recent years, bureaucracy, and the complexity of the licensing system spooked investment away from the capital-intensive oil and gas sector. At the same time, Ukrainian companies find it increasingly difficult ...

Olexander Valchyshen @AlexValchyshen

The US economy, fiscal stimulus, trade protectionism, and perceived worries

2 April 2018

Here, we provide our view on the recent worries in the global financial markets over the initiatives of the US government, namely, fiscal stimulus and import tariffs. We conclude that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still bound for a gradual decrease.