INVESTORS TAKE NOTICE OF RESILIENT UKRAINE

London, 10 December 2021 - Despite growing geopolitical tensions and economic pressure created by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, investors remain cautiously optimistic in Ukraine’s economy.

Speakers at the 5th annual Ukrainian Investment Roadshow in London conference expressed confidence in Ukraine’s economic resilience despite the fragilities induced by the Covid-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions. A strong policy response from the National Bank of Ukraine and activity from the Ministry of Finance has resulted in investor confidence in the Ukrainian economy remaining cautiously high.

ICU, an independent asset management, private equity and investment advisory firm specialising in emerging and frontier markets, sponsored the Ukrainian Investment Roadshow in London. Organised by the Strategy Council, a business intelligence hub focused on emerging European economies, the event was attended by influential international investors, advisers and analysts specialising in emerging markets and featured discussions from high profile speakers on Ukraine’s macroeconomic outlook, sovereign and corporate bond market, the development of the local capital markets as well as investment opportunities in Ukraine.

Speakers included Vadym Prystaiko, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; Dmytri Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Yuri Butsa, Ukraine Government Commissioner for Public Debt Management; Kyrylo Shevchenko, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine; Konstantin Stetsenko, Founding Partner of ICU; and Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, Head of Macroeconomic Research of ICU.

Konstatin Stetsenko, Founding Partner at ICU commented:

“Ukraine’s continued economic resilience in these uncertain times is a testament to the transformative work of our policymakers, investors, and politicians. It is, however, vital for Ukraine’s economy to continue the reform process to attract more international investors while also managing the economic impact of the crisis. We believe that the key to rebuilding investor confidence is economic stability.”

Key highlights include:

• The county’s solvency improved considerably over the past couple of years as the government remains committed to fiscal consolidation. The Public debt-to-GDP ratio is declining fast.
• Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, Head of macro-economic research at ICU, noted that economic recovery, however, decelerated notably in the second half of 2021. Ukraine’s economy is entering 2022 at a slow pace. GDP is projected to grow 3.0–3.5% next year, below its potential growth rate.
• A common theme echoed through the day was the resilience of the Ukrainian economy and how that will play a major role in 2022 onwards.
• However, Vavryshchuk commented that for this to continue cooperation with the IMF and other International Financial Institutions is vital as it would provide much-needed insurance against shocks, especially in times of volatile global capital markets and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. He noted that any delays in the programme’s implementation would worsen investor sentiment.
• Konstantin Stetsenko, Founding Partner at ICU, shared his insights on international investors demand for Ukrainian bonds. He pointed to a significant increase in the number of private investors in Ukraine investing in local governments in 2021 with $891m, compared to just $52m in 2018.
• In the Eurobond market, Stetsenko noted its good performance in the first half of the year, but because of the uncertainties caused by covid and issues with liquidity, positive expectations flattened slightly during Q3 and Q4.
• Stetsenko also alluded that another major risk was rising levels of inflation, and a change in attitude from major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve could impact global economies and lead to heightened volatility across all asset classes including local government bonds.

About ICU

ICU Group is an independent multi-strategy asset management, private equity, and investment firm that specialises in the emerging, and frontier markets worldwide. The Group also has a portfolio of venture capital and fintech investments through its venture capital arm, ICU Ventures.

ICU currently manages $500m in assets and aims to provide its clients with superior risk-adjusted returns across a number of asset classes with investment decisions supported by robust macroeconomic and sectoral analyses from an in-house team of research economists.