INVESTORS COMMEND UKRAINE’S ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND FOCUS ON REBUILDING THE NATION POST-WAR

London, 18th November 2022 – A mutual affection for rebuilding Ukraine and facilitating its prosperity in a future without War was rife at this year’s 6th Annual Ukraine Investment Roadshow in London. The majority of speakers and attendees shared an encouraging view on how the economy of a country at War, from the health of its banking reserves to the adaptable entrepreneurship of its venture capital space, had proved resilient. The question, however, that remained pertinent was how Ukraine should start preparing for recovery, creating stability and the roles international governments and the private sector can play to support it.  

ICU, an independent asset management, private equity and investment advisory firm specialising in emerging and frontier markets, sponsored the Ukrainian Investment Roadshow in London. Organised by the Strategy Council, a business intelligence hub focused on emerging European economies, the event was attended by influential international investors, advisers and analysts specialising in emerging markets and featured discussions from high profile speakers on Ukraine’s macroeconomic outlook, sovereign and corporate bond market, the development of the local capital markets as well as investment opportunities in Ukraine.

Speakers included Vadym Prystaiko, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; Kateryna Rozhkova, First Deputy Governor, National Bank of Ukraine; Artem Shevalev, Director, European Bank for Reconstruction & Development; Rustem Umerov, Head of State Property Fund of Ukraine and Roman Nikitov, Head of ICU Ventures.

Konstatin Stetsenko, Founding Partner at ICU commented:

“As Ukrainians have showcased their remarkable strength and resilience since the War has started, the Ukrainian economy has also proven to be resilient through the War, thanks to generous international and domestic support. Having suffered a steep decline in GDP at the beginning of the conflict, the economy has found its ground even as the war has escalated. However, Ukraine and its economy face unprecedented challenges to come as Ukraine’s infrastructure, including vital energy resources, continue to be destroyed from missile strikes which are set to continue for time to come. It was, therefore, heartening to see a collective drive at this year’s event from both international investors and policymakers to situate rebuilding Ukraine as the core focus going forward as funding remains crucial to ensure a successful outcome of the war.”

Key highlights include:

Comments were made across the panels on the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) decision to keep interest rates at 25%, regardless of the appointment of new governor, Andriy Pyshnyy. Confidence was felt that the tight stance on monetary policy was contributing well towards propping up Ukrainian macroeconomic and financial stability.
Furthermore signaling strength in the NBU, there are optimistic increases in financial aid from overseas, with an estimated net inflow of capital grants and concessional loans potentially reaching US$40bn in 2023. This has led to a less significant Hryvnia depreciation and helped stabilize the trade balance and NBU capital reserves.

Roman Nikitov, Head of ICU Ventures, relayed that the Ukrainian venture capital space was remained buoyant, with 96% of Ukrainian start-ups having maintained their operations during the War, with the IT sector having had additionally grown a further 24%. Successes where exemplified at the conference throughout different sectors, including within the agricultural sector with Argo Region and the technology sector with Intellias.

Encouraging foreign investment into Ukraine remained, as always, an important topic of the conference, with plenty of audience participation from long-term international investors . However, investees did raise concern over their ability to remove capital out of Ukraine. Strict restrictions on capital flight imposed by the NBU have been enforced making these transactions harder. However, in this period of economic uncertainty, keeping capital generated within Ukraine retained is essential. As Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, Head of Macroeconomic Research, ICU, said “concessional lending to the government will not be sufficient to offset private capital flight in 2022, but may be just enough to do so in 2023.”

For further information, or to arrange an interview with ICU, please contact:

Montfort Communications

Shireen Farhana

ICU@montfort.london

(+44) 7757 299250

About ICU

ICU Group is an independent multi-strategy asset management, private equity, and investment firm that specialises in the emerging, and frontier markets worldwide. The Group also has a portfolio of venture capital and fintech investments through its venture capital arm, ICU Ventures.   

ICU aims to provide its clients with superior risk-adjusted returns across a number of asset classes with investment decisions supported by robust macroeconomic and sectoral analyses from an in-house team of research economists.