30 квітня 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

USD super rally fades, its meaning for UAH

Yesterday's global financial markets' reaction to US statistics results once again underscored the trend that has evolved since late March and early April. As the US economy slowed in 1Q, the US Fed i ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150430.pdf  (380kb)

10 квітня 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

The meaning of the ruble's appreciation

The Russian ruble has rallied impressively recently. In April, it rose 12.0%, up more than one-third from this year's low seen at the end of January when the Ukraine-Russia military standoff in Donbas ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150410.pdf  (494.2kb)

20 березня 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

What economic activity indicators reveal

In February’s monthly statistics on Ukraine's key economic sectors published this week, all sectors, including agriculture, declined year-on-year on the basis of raw data. However, upon closer analysi ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150320.pdf  (322.1kb)

12 березня 2015 Macroeconomics

Quarterly Report

Trapped in “The Depression Union"

This is an updated and condensed summary of our macro view for the next three-year period of 2015-17. Economics vs. geopolitics: “The Ukrainian crisis” should really be named “The Russian ...

ICUQuarterlyReport-20150312.pdf  (3.2mb)

27 лютого 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Ukrainian FX in freefall versus peers

Corrected: front page chartUpon close analysis of available data from the BIS and

ICUMacroInsight-20150227.pdf  (446.2kb)

20 лютого 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Economic activity: Recession lengthens, deepens

Because the Minsk 2 ceasefire agreement appears to have failed (or was just tactical manoeuvring by both sides), we expect prolonged Kremlin aggression towards Ukraine in the economic, information and ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150220.pdf  (280.1kb)

13 лютого 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Minsk 2: Macroeconomic background

In a second attempt by Ukraine (supported by the West) and the Kremlin to stop the Donbas war, there is a great deal of uncertainty whether the key sides--Ukraine's leadership and the Kremlin--will fu ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150213.pdf  (388.1kb)

6 лютого 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Hryvnia prospects appear distressed

FX rate. Yesterday, the NBU committed to liberating the hryvnia to trade on the FX market in accordance with true market principles, i.e. free floating. While the currency closed at 22.645/USD ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150206.pdf  (235.8kb)