20 February 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Economic activity: Recession lengthens, deepens

Because the Minsk 2 ceasefire agreement appears to have failed (or was just tactical manoeuvring by both sides), we expect prolonged Kremlin aggression towards Ukraine in the economic, information and ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150220.pdf  (280.1kb)

13 February 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Minsk 2: Macroeconomic background

In a second attempt by Ukraine (supported by the West) and the Kremlin to stop the Donbas war, there is a great deal of uncertainty whether the key sides--Ukraine's leadership and the Kremlin--will fu ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150213.pdf  (388.1kb)

6 February 2015 Macroeconomics

Economic Insight

Hryvnia prospects appear distressed

FX rate. Yesterday, the NBU committed to liberating the hryvnia to trade on the FX market in accordance with true market principles, i.e. free floating. While the currency closed at 22.645/USD ...

ICUMacroInsight-20150206.pdf  (235.8kb)

12 November 2014 Macroeconomics

Quarterly Report

Practicing a crises slalom

This is an updated and condensed summary of our macro view for the 4Q of 2014 and 2015-16. Ukraine is practicing a crises slalom. In our view, the past 12 months saw acute political c ...

ICUQtlyReport-20141112.pdf  (1.3mb)

30 July 2014 Macroeconomics

Quarterly Report

Ukraine to Kremlin: Back off

This is our condensed summary of our macro view for the 2H of 2014 and 2015-16. De-facto war: Ukraine responds to Kremlin military assertiveness. Ukraine's public and its milit

ICUQtlyReport-20140730-print.pdf  (1.7mb)

16 April 2014 Macroeconomics

Quarterly Report

Ukraine: Global war by other means

Below is a summary of our macro view for 2014-15. (It is condensed to three pages in order to detail key information from the report.) Geopolitics: Ukraine as a brand-new epicentre of the

ICUQtlyReport-20140417-print.pdf  (2.2mb)

29 October 2013 Macroeconomics

Quarterly Report

Where are we headed from here?

This summary provides a brief outline of our view on Ukraine's macroeconomic state during the rest of 2013 and from 2014-16. Ukraine's geopolitical puzzle: Adding the missing parts. Uk

ICUQtlyReport-20131029-print.pdf  (3.4mb)

14 August 2013 Macroeconomics

Quarterly Report

Muddling through no more

ICU's macroeconomic view on Ukraine in the forecast period of 2H13 and 2014-15 is summarised below. Ukraine's economy tired, nearly exhausted, and cornered. To paraphrase sports commen

ICUQtlyReport-20130814-print.pdf  (2.8mb)